02 January 2011

Taking stock and looking ahead

In some ways, this year turned out much better than could have been predicted. In other ways, not so great. But, when you add it all up, there was more good than bad. As a friend recently told me, life is a series of transitions and the bottom line is how well you handle those changes and ups and downs. Some transitions are planned and create exciting opportunities. Others are not, take you off guard and demand quick thinking and adjustments. Preparation and experience are the keys to creating success in both instances.

By sectors, my year in review:

Family: Lots of positives here. We were blessed with two additional grand children, Baron, born in March, and Regan, born in October. Both are healthy, growing and amazing in all ways. We are so blessed and fortunate to have three healthy grand children and both our kids are doing well. On the home front, circumstances have given Lynne and I a lot more time with each other. Also, a blessing. This could have been a disaster, but I'm making a lot of adjustments, learning to be more patient and enjoying a reduction in stress caused by the pressures of daily work.

Cautiously optimistic about 2011
Work: This is probably the low point as I lost my job mid-year. I'm still hoping this will prove to be a blessing in disguise. 2011 will go a long ways in telling if I'm right. I am among those aging Baby Boomers whom the steep recession has tossed onto the human scrap heap of the unemployed who may never find full-time employment again. I remain convinced that either through part-time work or consulting, there is a patchwork of projects that could look like a real job. A lot depends on how strong the economy bounces back this year and the appetite for "not-quite-over-the-hill" workers. This is a moving target. The really good note is that it's caused us to focus on our retirement scenario very seriously and make a lot harder choices than we probably would have otherwise.

Sports: This sector couldn't have turned out much better. While my Wildcats didn't win a fifth national championship, they did recover from an early season stumble, win their umpteenth NWC title, wrap up another winning season to extend their national record to 55 seasons and make it to the second round of the NCAA Division III playoffs. Not much more to say about Oregon. A perfect season and a spot in the BCS National Championship Game. Wow, the best season ever for the Ducks and the culmination of a long uphill journey from football oblivion only a couple of decades ago. Shocking what money will buy! And, it was all topped off by my late-in-the-year decision to switch from cable to DirecTV. If you are a serious sports fan, you must get DirecTV. The picture is better, the choices are greater, the HD is more ubiquitous. I've had it only for about two weeks, but already a HUGE fan.

Health & Lifestyle: After a nagging injury kept me from running the first half of the year, I got back it in May, which made my doctor happy as I was able to shed about 20 pounds. Now,  I need to pick up the pace, lose another 20 and focus on upping my mileage. I'm considering (and I say that advisedly) training for another marathon. Incented by Tyson's sub-four minute first marathon in November. With enough time to focus on the training and IF I can lose the weigh, I could make it work by the fall. I still think this is a long shot. The pace is slower, more focused and all about quality, not quantity of experience. I've spent a lot of time reuniting with old acquaintances and taken time for family. Getting a LOT of stuff done around the house that needed attention and still more to do.

2011: Overall, I'm hugely optimistic about the new year. 2010 was a great year for the stock market and it's hard to predict how it could do better in 2011. I do think we'll be up next year, but less than 2010 -- maybe something in the 5-6% range, unless we hit a patch of unusual inflation. There's more run in this bull despite the fact that what we saw in the second half of 2010 certainly anticipated some of this. Look for a sell-off early in the year that will frustrate some. Businesses will beging spending and hiring at a faster pace than 2010. It could be a great year. Barring some unexpected global catastrophe, there seems little risk that it will be a horrible year. This year will be a big year of adjusting to our "reduced" lifestyle and living the kind of life where we focus on what we need, not what we want. We've already planned some quality time with friends and family. It will be a year of hunkering down and enjoying and appreciating the "simple" pleasures that make life great.  I'm both excited and cautious about the new year because more unknowns than I've faced in many, many years. Still, the glass looks half full, not half empty.