The winter of our discontent

Never before has the criteria for presidential success or failure been quite so stark. At the same time, never has it been quite so complex and unpredictable. With today's passage of the massive stimulus package by Congress, the die is cast and Barack Obama's presidential scorecard has been carved in stone. We are in the winter of our discontent, doubt and uncertainty.

His presidency and very likely his hopes for a second term will be determined by his ability to lead the country back to economic prosperity or at least close enough that he has the wind at his back when he hits the campaign trail in about three years. From this vantage point, there is hardly a shred of certainty and in fact quite a bit of doubt and pessimism that this will happen. After all, the Republicans have decided to sit this one out and are quietly if not vocally rooting for the recovery to fail. This is politics and frankly, right now they're desperate and it's their only chance. If the country goes into a prolonged economic malaise or even a depression, they win. Any other scenario, they lose. It's a huge gamble, but probably the only hand they have to play.

The next few months in particular, but the next year or so are going to test the mettle of our new president. He's already learned a lot about "changing the tenor" in Washington. The old ways of doing things don't disappear overnight. And the extreme partisanship that has marked the nation's capitol over the past two decades isn't going away anytime soon. Obama extended a hand on the stimulus legislation and they gave him the back of theirs. So much for Mr. Nice Guy.

This is going to be hardball and Nancy Pelosi probably has a better grasp on how this is going to play out than Obama does. Does he want to change the tenor in Washington? Absolutely. Can he afford politically to get kicked and spit on? Absolutely not. I expect him to improve his act over the coming months as we move into a phase where the PR surrounding the recovery will be every bit as important as the data -- at least for awhile. He needs to find his pace on this. Get a little more sophisticated about "reaching out." And crips up those answers at his new press Q&A. (I expect him to have lots of those because he's good at it. Did you know that George Bush II didn't have his first press conference until 11 months into his presidency?)

I expect to see the president basically hitting the campaign trail and highlighting every success he can find almost daily. To some extent, this is now going to become a big PR campaign. And, campaigning is something that Obama does well. It will now be up to him to lift the spirits of the nation. The Republicans have already said this is a bad bill that won't work and they hope it fails, so you can expect the leadership of the party to continue to highlight and celebrate failure and obstruction. Obama can't afford to let the negative and the detractors dominate the news. This ain't going to be easy, either, because the press loves negative news and it's going to keep coming in buckets full for some time.

Obama has a huge opportunity, not only to raise the spirits of the American people and help us soldier through this. But, he can also influence the perceptions of how things are going over the next several months. Early perceptions will be lasting percpetions and that's going to make all the spinning by both parties really interesting to watch.

It will be interesting to see what the Republicans do now. You can expect they will wallow in the gloom and doom and daily remind us that things aren't getting better, aided and abetted by a press focused on every negative statistic. But, what if things get better? Can they claim it's the tax cuts that are making it happen? They have really boxed themselves into a corner and for them success is a simple formula. Success=failure for the rest of us. Think about that. Who loves ya baby?

So, I, the realist, will choose to be the optimist in this one and of course be rooting for our president and for the American people. Is there any other choice? We've all felt the hurt either directly or indirectly. Why would anyone besides a sadist want the hurt and fear to continue? Much good will come out of this trial we are all facing despite the hurt it is and will inflict. Barack Obama has a huge job and there's more at stake than just his political career and reputation. Just as we all rooted for America and our leaders in the aftermath of 9/11, I'm rooting for America on this one.