Election provides few if any insights

Yesterday's off-off year elections are being over analysed. Hard to reach much into them. Sure, the Rs appear to have gotten a leg up by winning governorships in Virginia and New Jersey, but they also took it on the chin in New York, losing a House seat that they'd held since the mid-19th century. My perspective is that the candidates still matter. It's not just party label -- unless of course, you're a member of the deep core and only vote a party ticket.

In both Virginia and New Jersey, which are largely Democratic states, the Republicans won by appealing to the middle (independents) who swing back and forth and decide close elections. It's how Obama won comfortably last year. To them, it's about the candidates more than party affiliation, since they don't buy into the dogma of either party and vote for the best candidate or sometimes vote against a bad one.

Moving on to the ballot referals. Maine voted down gay marriage. But, Washington refused to reject a law expanding the rights of same sex couples. Both votes were close. This may just reflect the demographics in Washington and its strong Democratic registration. As the voting population continues to skew younger and Western, expect to see more votes that favor gay marriage and same sex couple rights. It's inevitable because that's the point of view of young people today.

Washingtonians also rejected draconian spending limits. While comparisons may be tough to make, that has to be somewhat encouraging to Oregonians who oppose repealing the tax increases on business and the wealthy imposed by the last Legislature and on the ballot in January.

The most interesting race, however, was in upstate New York where Bill Owens appears to have defeated his conservative opponent, Douglas L. Hoffman. Hoffman was hand picked by the right wing of the party after they rejected the local Republican nominee. This is a huge blow to the Dick Armey branch of the conservative movement that has its eyes on using this scheme to defeat moderate (normal) Republicans elsewhere in the country. What they didn't bargain on is the fact that his could split the party and open the door to a Democrat. They are targeting other races in 2010, including some incumbents. This is just another example of how the ultra-conservative, evangelical wing of the party is in deep trouble and on its way out.